Tools · Calculator

Risk of Ruin Calculator

Even money par flat betting karte hue bankroll haarne se pehle profit target tak pahunchne ki probability.

Bankroll

Bet

Target

target tak pahunche

24.6%

pehle ruin

75.4%

target

+$250

units (a / b)

50 / 25

khatam hone tak expected spins

1,168

Koshish ka EV

−$315.70

Result padhna

Ek baar mein $10 lagakar, aapke paas $500 ko $750 banane ka 24.6% chance hai, kangaal hone se pehle. Badi bets yeh probability badhati hain kyunki kam spins matlab kam 2.70% ke toll; saath hi safar aur bhi ubad-khabad ho jata hai. Asar dekhne ke liye $100 bets ko $5 bets se compare kijiye.

Method aur maanyataayein

p = 18/37 ke saath gambler’s ruin: P(target) = (1 − (q/p)ᵃ)/(1 − (q/p)ᵃ⁺ᵇ), a = bankroll/bet, b = target/bet. Expected duration a/(q−p) − (a+b)·P/(q−p). Sirf flat even-money bets.