Expected Loss
Expected value guna aapka kul wager: average mein session kitne ka padta hai.
Expected loss = kul wager × 1/37. Stake $10, 100 spins: $1,000 wager, $27 expected loss. Progressions zyada wager karti hain, isliye zyada haarti hain.
Turnover, bankroll nahi
Expected lossganitExpected lossExpected value guna kul lagayi gayi raqam; ek session ya ek muddat mein ausat nuksaan.Poora padhein → is par nirbhar hai ki table par kitna paisa guzarta hai, is par nahi ki aap kitna laaye. $100 ka bankrollpaisaBankrollKhelne ke liye alag rakhi gayi kul raqam. Bankroll management ka matlab hai tay karna ki har bet aur har session mein iska kitna hissa risk karna hai.Poora padhein → jo kai baar dobara lagaya jaaye, $2,000 ka turnoverpaisaTurnoverSession ya muddat mein lagayi gayi kul raqam, dobara lagayi gayi jeet milakar. Doosre naam: handle, action.Poora padhein → aur $54 ka expected loss utha sakta hai; $10,000 ka bankroll jo ek baar redbetRed18 red numbers par even-money bet. French mein: rouge.Poora padhein → par lagaya jaaye, $10,000 ka turnover aur $270 uthata hai. Casino ki kamaai traffic par toll hai, aur traffic har spin par har chippaisaChipEk fixed raqam ka token, jise bet lagane ke liye layout par rakha jaata hai. Doosra naam: check.Poora padhein → hai.
Formula
E[loss] = Σ stakes / 37. Flat bettor ke liye yeh stake × spins / 37 hai. ProgressionstrategyProgressionKoi bhi rule jo pichhle results ke hisaab se stake badalta hai. Negative progressions haar ke baad ise badhati hain, positive jeet ke baad.Poora padhein → ke liye yeh average stake × spins / 37 hai, aur average stake base se zyada hota hai, kyunki haar ke silsilon mein stakes badhte hain. $500 limit par $10 base se MartingalestrategyMartingaleProgression jo har haar ke baad bet double karti hai. Yeh kya karti hai aur kya nahi, iske liye Strategy section dekhiye.Poora padhein → lambe session mein average lagbhag $28 per spin lagati hai, isliye yeh flat $10 betting se lagbhag teen guna haarti hai, kisi bhi ek bet ke odds badle bina.
Raftaar
Live tables ghante mein 40–60 spins chalati hain, casino floors 30–50, speed tables 90 ya zyada, RNG tables jitni tez aap click karein. Same stake par, raftaar hi har ghante ke expected loss ka sabse bada lever hai: dheemi floor table se 200 spins per ghanta wali RNG table par jaane se shaam ki keemat chaar guna ho jaati hai, odds mein koi badlaav ke bina.
Saal bhar mein
Ek regular jo hafte mein do ghante 50-spin live table par $10 lagata hai, saal mein $52,000 ka turnover karta hai aur European wheel par lagbhag $1,400, French par $700, American par $2,700 expected loss chukata hai. Hisaab boring hai par nateeja nahi: wheel aur table ka chunaav kisi bhi system se anant guna zyada keemti hai, kyunki systems ki keemat theek zerowheelZeroAkela green pocket jise koi even-money, dozen ya column bet cover nahi karta; house edge ka source. Doosre naam: single zero, 0.Poora padhein → hai.
Kisi bhi bank se zyada keemti game
St. Petersburg game, jo Nicolaus Bernoulli ne 1713 mein rakha, coin tab tak uchhaalta hai jab tak heads na aaye aur ek toss lage to $2, do lage to $4, teen lage to $8 deta hai, har baar double. Har sambhav lambai expected valueganitExpected valueLambe samay mein har bet ka ausat nateeja. Har standard European bet ke liye stake ka −1/37.Poora padhein → mein $1 jodti hai, isliye kaagaz par game ki keemat anant hai. Koi bank anant prize nahi de sakta, aur jab prizes bank ke paas jitna hai utne par cap ho jaate hain, to keemat dhah jaati hai: $1 million ke bank ke saath game lagbhag $21 ka hai, $1 billion ke saath lagbhag $31 ka. Martingale wahi game hai, doosri taraf se dekha hua. Yeh lagbhag har cycle mein ek unitpaisaUnitBase stake jismein koi system ya player kaam karta hai. Progressions units mein batayi jaati hain taaki kisi bhi table par laagu hon.Poora padhein → jeetti hai aur kisi durlabh lambe silsile mein sab kuch haar jaati hai; bina limit ke lambe silsile aur bhi badi jeet se chuk jaate, aur limit ke saath nahi chukte, isi liye table limittableTable limitAllowed minimum aur maximum bet. Maximum hi doubling progressions ko rokta hai.Poora padhein → tay karti hai ki Martingale kaise fail hogi, yeh nahi ki fail hogi ya nahi.
Expected loss result nahi hai
Koi bhi single session apne expected loss se alag hoga, aksar khud expected loss se bhi zyada. $10 par 100 even-money spins mein standard deviationganitStandard deviationVariance ka square root; expected value se kisi result ki aam doori.Poora padhein → $100 hai, jabki expected −$27; jeetne wala session kuch khaas nahi. Expected loss keemat hai; varianceganitVarianceYeh naap ki results expected value ke aas-paas kitna faile hue hain. Straight-up ke liye zyada, even-money bets ke liye kam.Poora padhein → packaging hai; kisi ek raat ka result ek ka sample hai.
Formula
Sawaal
Nahi. Aap jo kuch bhi wager karte hain uska 2.70%. Jeet dobara lagane se woh phir wager hoti hai.
Har ghante, haan, same raftaar par. Har target tak pahunchne par, nahi: risk of ruinganitRisk of ruinTarget ya spin count tak pahunchne se pehle poora bankroll haar jaane ki probability.Poora padhein → dekhiye.
Casinos average bet aur khelne ke samay se aapka expected loss andaza lagate hain aur uska ek hissa comps ke roop mein lautate hain. Woh keemat ka ek hissa wapas de rahe hain, aapko edge nahi.
Thodi hansi
Turnover × 1/37. Ghadi formula mein hi hai.
Sources
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.